Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.056320 0.064136 0.072901 0.083505 0.096052 0.110503 0.128520
2026-01-18 0.046465 0.056596 0.068941 0.085272 0.106575 0.133798 0.171838
2026-01-25 0.038194 0.049215 0.063628 0.084242 0.113611 0.154971 0.219549
2026-02-01 0.031225 0.042229 0.057534 0.081007 0.117271 0.173283 0.270873
2026-02-08 0.027018 0.038270 0.054882 0.082187 0.128013 0.206026 0.359315
2026-02-15 0.023610 0.034886 0.052478 0.083354 0.139517 0.244945 0.479949
2026-02-22 0.021028 0.032331 0.050913 0.085677 0.154207 0.296516 0.660031
2026-03-01 0.018793 0.029960 0.049229 0.087510 0.169077 0.356444 0.908570
2026-03-08 0.016502 0.027126 0.046231 0.086230 0.177578 0.407871 1.187020
2026-03-15 0.014077 0.023691 0.041542 0.080487 0.174534 0.430574 1.406570
2026-03-22 0.012772 0.022099 0.040087 0.081332 0.188012 0.508146 1.937770
2026-03-29 0.011839 0.021066 0.039560 0.084202 0.208372 0.622878 2.846670
2026-04-05 0.010827 0.019756 0.038293 0.085221 0.225047 0.743212 4.109960
2026-04-12 0.009917 0.018522 0.036978 0.085853 0.241504 0.881864 5.987569
2026-04-19 0.008954 0.017043 0.034868 0.083875 0.249050 0.993999 8.191855
2026-04-26 0.008001 0.015465 0.032273 0.079929 0.248316 1.069977 10.525723
2026-05-03 0.007424 0.014628 0.031304 0.080488 0.265310 1.267823 16.106145
2026-05-10 0.006916 0.013878 0.030425 0.081126 0.283595 1.507347 25.477991
2026-05-17 0.006517 0.013324 0.029948 0.082951 0.308784 1.847196 44.245597
2026-05-24 0.006140 0.012772 0.029380 0.084360 0.333674 2.247801 79.504648
2026-05-31 0.005688 0.011988 0.028067 0.082851 0.343663 2.549430 128.154048
2026-06-07 0.005133 0.010894 0.025751 0.077165 0.328568 2.573728 160.343491
2026-06-14 0.004853 0.010445 0.025173 0.077790 0.349732 3.076867 317.599246